The work was supported by a steering group made up of GMGU and officer/council representatives from local authorities in Greater Manchester (Manchester, Rochdale, Stockport, Trafford, and Wigan)

The model so developed by Urban Mines brought together data appropriate to a number of waste streams from a variety of sources, including the Regional C&I waste survey carried out by Urban Mines in 2007. Other key data sources were from the municipal waste management strategy reviews of Greater Manchester and Wigan WDAs together with updated arisings data from 2006/7, the survey of construction demolition and excavation waste in the north west region and the Environment Agency data for hazardous and radioactive waste. Also included was data on 430 waste sites, plus 57 licensed sites without planning information, plus 19 recent planning applications.

The Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) was used with the above surveys to forecast future waste arisings based upon the social and economic growth patterns and utilised factors such as the number of projected households and number of jobs by industrial sector. Recent and anticipated developments in national and regional legislation, policy and strategy were reviewed in order to identify impacts which should be reflected in the model. The needs assessment also took into account the policies included in the draft North West Regional Spatial Strategy (NW RSS) and the Regional Waste Strategy (RWS).

The initial modelling took three waste management scenarios ie Baseline (which reflects the current status and forward planning position), maximised recycling and recovery of C&I and CD&E wastes (utilising the Northwest C&I survey data on the amount and types of waste currently not recycled), and a median level of increased recycling and recovery. From this, data was generated on the gap in processing capacity, by waste type, and sensitivity analysis on the causes of the gap, and hence the number of new facilities that could be developed in order to meet the gap by 2020 was identified.

The resultant model was constructed to create a level of detail and consistency that has not been previously available. The model provides an understanding of waste management, in terms of who is producing the waste, the material streams and the waste management destinations. The model also includes data on which materials have the potential for recycling or energy recovery by waste stream and producing sector. Together with the modifiers used provide a forecasting of future arisings and disposal scenarios if the aim of managing waste more sustainably and towards the top of the waste hierarchy is to be achieved. This is important in practical terms as these elements of the modelling output show where specific changes in waste management practice will have to occur. Further runs identified which commercial and industrial sectors are generating those wastes which could be more productively managed.

For more information contact Gill Tatum on 01274699400 or at gill.tatum@urbanmines.org.uk